Cable from Japanese Embassy in Havana to Tokyo

Transmitting from Havana 11/28/1962 11:00

Received in Tokyo 11/29/1962 05:14

To Foreign Minister Ohira from Ambassador Yaguchi

Re: The Situation in Cuba

1. There is much speculation over the reason and purpose of Mikoyan’s long 24-day stay in Cuba. But the truth over the visit remains unclear. If the purpose of Mikoyan’s visit was to persuade Cuba to accept UN base inspections in accordance with Khrushchev’s pledge to the UN, you might say it turned out to be perfect failure for the moment. There is a perspective that the purpose of Mikoyan’s long stay was to reexamine the value of Cuba as a strategic beachhead and the prospects of the revolutionary government. This view sounds closer to reality. Whether this is right or not all depends on how the Soviets will provide assistance to Cuba from now on.

2. Regarding the reasons why Castro reportedly refused to accept Mikoyan’s offer, there is the possibility that Castro may be considering the current domestic situation as dangerous as when he entered Cuba with his army five or six years ago. He might really be afraid of the breakdown of the revolutionary government as the result of loosening the current defense system because the measures would let overseas anti-government people return to the country and regain a beachhead. Castro might need the possibility of a US invasion because he wants to crack down on the anti-government movements by stirring an excessive crisis mentality among the nation. That’s why he cannot accept the base inspections offer. This view seems plausible. (Castro believes that [the danger of] invasion by overseas anti-government people will never stop despite the US non-invasion pledge.)

The cable has been transferred to [Japan’s] Embassies in the US and Mexico.