Cable, Mao to Filippov [Stalin]

To Com[rade] Filippov

1. I received your telegram dated 6 January. American imperialism and the GMD have fully lost the trust of the people of China, therefore they have lost all real initiative. In case they create a coalition government, it will not have much influence. Our coalition government can be created in the summer, and can also be created somewhat earlier, that is in the spring - one [will] not meet with great obstacles in this.

2. Our units have already fully finished off the elite forces of the GMD numbering 19 divisions under the command of Du Yuming, which were encircled by our forces in the vicinity of Suizhou.

3. Preparatory work to capture the city of Tianjin is already done. It was decided: to begin advance on this city on 13 November. After the capture of Tianjin, advance on Beiping [Beijing] begins immediately, then on Taiyuan and Datong.

4. In the spring of this year the main forces of our army will be at rest and in [the process of] re-ordering, and in the summer it will be possible to begin movement toward the South. At the latest time [sic], i.e. at the end of July or in the beginning of August, 1,500,000 people of the regular forces of the People's Liberation Army will be shipped across the Yangzi River. They will exceed the GMD forces both in terms of their fighting spirit and in technical equipment.

In the fall and winter of this year we are 90 percent confident of the successful capture of the greater part of the ten provinces, that is - Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Shaanxi and Gansu, of capturing cities - Nanjing, Wuhan, Yichang, Changsha, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Jujian, Anqing, Wuhu, Zhenjiang, Suzhou, Wuxi, Fuzhou, Xi'an.

As far as Shanghai is concerned, this is no longer a question in the military sense, we are confident that one can capture it in the winter of this year, but [the question] exists as to supplying it with fuel and food. One will still have to think about whether we will capture it.

5. The delegation is composed of Mao Zedong, Ren Bishi, and Gao Gang and the rest are with them, going together, in all 21 people. Waiting for you to send planes for transporting us to Moscow. Now it is necessary for us to come to you without delay for a report to comrade main master (glavnyi khoziain) - VKP(b) CC, as well as to receive instructions on a number of questions of the Chinese evolution.

Mao Zedong
10.1.49