Assessment of the General Staff of the Navy on Russo-Japanese relations and the problems of territorial delimitation between Russia and Japan

CONCLUSION

of the Main Staff of the Navy concerning Russian-Japanese relations and the problem of the territorial division between Russia and Japan.

1. The Composition of Men and Equipment of the Navy in the Southern Kuriles

At the present time the following subunits and units of the Pacific Ocean Fleet are deployed in the Southern Kuriles:

1) on the island of Iturup

- an independent coastal missile divizion (four launchers for the launch of anti-ship missiles);

- a coastal artillery battery (four 100-mm artillery launchers);

- a off-shore coastal defense divizion of ships (two cutters);

- a lookout and communications post;

- an air station at the Vetrovoe airfield;

- a commandant’s military transportation service office;

- a signal intelligence unit; and

- a communications station.

b) on the island of Kunashir:

- a radiotechnical platoon;

- a radio beacon service group on Cape Lovtsov;

c) on the island of Shikotan (Shpanberg)

- a branch of the hydrographic service;

- a group of navigational equipment resources;

- a radio beacon service group on Cape Shpanberg;

The total strength of the personnel of the Pacific Ocean Fleet is about 430 men, including 40 officers, 60 warrant officers, 65 manual laborers and office workers, and up to 265 extended servicemen.

This minimal amount of men and equipment of the Pacific Ocean Fleet on the Southern Kuriles provides:

- a system of navigation safety;

- monitoring of the situation in the region of the Southern Kurile Islands;

- an anti-amphibious landing defense of the Islands in cooperation with Ground Forces units;

If necessary the amount of men and equipment of the Pacific Ocean Fleet can be increased by transferring troops from Kamchatka, Sakhalin Island, or the Maritime Territory.

2. The military and political situation around the Southern Kuriles.

The military and political situation in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean is determined by the constant presence in the region of a considerable contingent of the US and Japanese Armed Forces and the uncertainty of international legal and territorial issues.

Special attention and importance in this region is attached to the problem of the Southern Kurile Islands.

Japanese military policy is constructed in accordance with the officially adopted concept of the “Comprehensive Assurance of National Security”. Its main thrust is strengthening the military alliance, an expansion of military cooperation with the US, and building up its military potential.

In spite of the changes which have occurred in the world, the collapse of the USSR, the military doctrine of Japan continues to have an anti-Russian thrust and defines Russia as the main enemy. The treaty and legal basis of Japanese-American allied relations is the “19 January 1960 Mutual Cooperation and Security Treaty”, which was automatically extended in 1976.

In accordance with this treaty American ships and aircraft are permanently based in Japan, including: an aircraft carrier at the port of Yokosuka with six or eight escort vessels, four missile ships with Tomahawk missiles (in peacetime they constantly have on board up to 180 cruise missiles with a range of up to 1500 miles against naval, and up to 2300 miles against shore targets).

In the last two years Japan has exerted great efforts to turn the country into a “full-fledged great power”, and to increase [its] international authority, which could considerably facilitate the solution of the problems of the “Northern Territories” in its favor. Japan has considerably stepped up its military activity in the conditions of a continuing economic crisis in the countries of the CIS, a sharp reduction of money for defense, and a reduction of Russia’s weapons [vooruzhennye sredstva] and of its combat readiness.

Along with diplomatic pressure on Russia, Japan is augmenting the military potential [of] the country annually, increasing the military budget (by an average of 6%). For example, in 1990 Japan’s military expenditures were $31.3 billion. More than $170 billion have been allocated to the next five-year defense program for 1991-1995, which exceeds the budget allocations for the 1986-1990 program by 16%.

An analysis of the activity of the Armed Forces of Japan and the US in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean shows an increase of the coordination of the activities of the sides to train the armed forces for joint operations in the Far East. The intensity of the joint exercises of the Japanese and American navies has increased. In 1991 80 different exercises and drills varying in targets and scale were held in the region.

The thrust of the exercises has not undergone changes and openly points to the training of the Japanese Navy for operations against the forces of Russia’s Pacific Ocean Fleet.

For example, in November 1991 “Cayenne-03”, the largest exercise in recent years, in which two US Navy aircraft carriers with escort vessels and practically all the combat-ready vessels and ships of the Japanese Navy (up to 100 vessels and ships) participated right away was held in the northern part of Japan adjacent to the waters of the Pacific Ocean and the Southern part of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the course of the exercise more than 400 sorties of combat aircraft were made.

In January of this year “Yamasakura-21”, a Japanese-American command-staff exercise of the ground forces, was held on the island of Hokkaido. In this exercise alternative methods were worked out of reinforcing the Japanese ground forces on the island of Hokkaido and the organization of joint combat operations on Hokkaido and the Kurile Islands adjacent to it.

Operations to blockade the bases of Russia’s Pacific Ocean Fleet ships, search and destroy our submarines and surface ships deployed at sea, were worked out in the course of the joint Japanese-American exercises, and operations to blockade closed seas with the goal of not permitting deployments from Pacific Ocean Fleet bases, and amphibious operations to seize the islands [were also worked out].

In all the exercises special attention was paid to the search and destruction of our strategic submarines. It ought to be noted at the same time that operations against them are being done in peacetime not only in exercises, but constantly. There are constantly four or five American  attack submarines near our atomic submarine bases on Kamchatka and in the Maritime Territory, and also in their patrol areas, and anti-submarine ships and US and Japanese aircraft conduct a systematic search for our submarines.

[Translator’s note: the reference to “strategic” submarines is to nuclear submarines equipped with ballistic missiles, not nuclear attack submarines]

US Navy submarines and surface ships performing operations to search for our submarines repeatedly have violated the territorial waters of the USSR in the Avacha Gulf and on the approaches to the Maritime Territory. Collisions between submarines have repeatedly occurred when tracking our submarines.

Altogether 16 collisions occurred during the period from 1967 to 1986. Since 1986 until the recent collision in the Northern Fleet in February there were no collisions.

As regards the region of the Southern Kuriles it ought to be especially noted that the territorial claims of Japan against the USSR, and now against Russia, are being accompanied by unceasing violations of the state border (territorial waters) in this region. During the period from 1987 through 1991 37,490 violations of the state border in the region of the Southern Kuriles were officially recorded (5509 in 1987, 8405 in 1988, 10139 in 1989, 7794 in 1990, and 5653 in 1991). It ought to be noted that their number and intensity sharply increased in 1992 after some reduction of violations in 1991, and are 4106 violations as of 20 July of this year. These violations stress the Japanese disrespect for the sovereignty of Russia and contradict the statements of the Japanese side about good-neighborly relations.

At the same time it ought to be noted that the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces has agreed to open Sakhalin Oblast’ and the Kurile Islands to visits by foreign citizens. Visa-free visits to the Southern Kuriles by Japanese have been established.

Representatives of the Japanese armed forces have twice (in 1989 and 1991) been invited to Vladivostok for exercises of the Pacific Ocean Fleet. However, both times the Japanese declined to send their representatives. Japanese journalists have repeatedly been permitted to visit our vessels, talk, and interview the command and personnel, and to film.

However, no reciprocal steps followed from the Japanese side. On the contrary, the Japanese organized a powerful propaganda campaign in Japan and in Russia with the goal of reversing public opinion about the ownership of the “Northern Territories” in their favor. In addition, using access to facilities previously closed to them, after decades of scaring the population with the Soviet military threat and the activity of the Soviet Pacific Ocean Fleet in the Pacific Ocean, starting in the beginning of 1992 the Japanese began to publish reports about the weakness of our Armed Forces in the Far East. There is beginning to be instilled in the consciousness of the Japanese the notion that the “Northern Territories” could be returned by force.  

3. The importance of the Southern Kuriles for the defense of the Far East of Russia.

An analysis of the trend of the exercises, scale, and regions [in which] they are held, the training, and the daily activity of the US and Japanese armed forces in the Far East shows that alternatives of joint operations against the grouping of our forces in the Far East are being worked out. While this is done the concept of joint operations of the Americans and the Japanese provides for the seizure of the Southern Kuriles, the blockade of the La Perouse Strait and the Kurile Straits with the goal of cutting the Pacific Fleet into two parts, the disruption of communications connecting the mainland with Sakhalin and Kamchatka, and then the destruction of the ship forces of the Fleet, especially the strategic naval nuclear forces in the Sea of Okhotsk and on Kamchatka.

Thus the Kurile Islands under Russian jurisdiction are a natural barrier, blocking the path of the US and Japanese naval forces to the Sea of Okhotsk [and] to the patrol regions of our strategic submarines.

The Americans and the Japanese well understand that in the event of extraordinary circumstances the closed seas of the Kurile Islands might be closed (blockaded, mined) to the passage (overflight) of their naval forces into the Sea of Okhotsk. Based on this they attach exceptionally great importance to Russia returning the so-called “Northern Territories” (Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan Islands and the Lesser Kurile Ridge) to Japan.

The transfer of the islands to Japan would allow free passage into the Sea of Okhotsk through the Catherine Strait (between Iturup and Shikotan Islands) uncontrolled by Russian forces. The Americans would get the ability to deploy their forces in the Sea of Okhotsk without hindrance (without the need to seize the islands of the Kurile Ridge and to trawl the passages in our mine belts), and the Japanese would expand opportunities to blockade the La Perouse Strait and the actions of their forces in the Southern Part of the Sea of Okhotsk even as far as the deployment of fighter aircraft on the airfields of Iturup Island. Existing and newly-created airfields in the Southern Kuriles will allow anti-submarine aircraft to be stationed on them, which would monitor [kontrolirovat’] the situation in the entire Sea of Okhotsk and the approaches to Kamchatka and the Kurile Islands. Thus, in this event the operations of the US and Japanese navies to monitor the activities of our strategic submarines in the Sea of Okhotsk and the approaches to Kamchatka and the Kurile Islands will be more effective and require fewer expenditures.

In addition, an analysis of the operations of US Navy aircraft carriers in the course of the exercises in which they work out launching strikes on the Maritime Territory and Sakhalin Island show that in this event the main safe region for them is the region west of the Tsugaru Strait. This region is well defended against the overflights of our aircraft by Japanese air defense and the operations of anti-submarine forces from the direction of the Pacific Ocean. in order to reach the aircraft carriers in this region our aircraft need to fly around Japan outside the range of action of its air defenses (over Sakhalin and the northern part of the Southern Kuriles) and launch strikes on the aircraft carriers from the direction of the Pacific Ocean.

In the event the Southern Kuriles are handed over to Japan and the Japanese air defense system is considerably expanded to the north our aircraft will not have the operating range to fly around it.

Thus the attack forces of the US and Japanese Navies which might operate against the Maritime Territory and Sakhalin from a region east of the Tsugaru Strait will become invulnerable to our forces.

Conclusions:

1. The growing economic and military potential of Japan is leading to an increase of the political, military, and economic pressure on Russia because of the existence of the contentious question of the ownership of the southern islands of the Kurile Ridge.

2. Proceeding from the interests of Russian security it is inadvisable at the present moment to speak of handing over even part of the southern Kurile Islands to Japan.

CHIEF OF THE OPERATIONS DIRECTORATE OF THE MAIN STAFF OF THE NAVY

Rear Admiral         Yu. Kaysin

21 June 1992