Shen, Chang-huan 1913- 1998

The Office of East Asian Analysis at the CIA concludes that Taiwan is moving away from its "lowkey diplomacy" and reverting to a tougher and more aggressive stance in defending its international standing.

The United States' interests in its relationships with China and Taiwan would be best served if Beijing and Taipei could reach some form of accommodation or association that would permit the two parts of China to coexist peacefully. The worst outcome would be a military confrontation that forced the United States to choose whether to provide .assistance to Taiwan or to allow it to be overwhelmed by superior Chinese force. Trends over the past four years have moved fitfully toward an eventual accommodation, and they probably will continue in this direction.

The CIA assesses rumors of an impending government reorganization on Taiwan in light of President Chiang Ching-kuo's declining health.

The Central Intelligence Agency assesses that Chinese leaders do not believe that they can achieve reunification in the near future, but that they remain determined to erode US support for Taiwan and want to draw Washington into a more direct role in promoting negotiations.

A report on Kuomintang efforts for the upcoming national election in Taiwan and the individuals surrounding Chiang Ching-kuo.